Where to start… The criminal lack of Dark Knight in the best picture category? The Academy’s curious fondness for Benjamin Button? Do you think the Academy even knows that more than 7 movies were released this year? The nominations are limited to a very slight, and slightly disappointing, pool.
But, alas, I do have a little Oscar confession to make. I have only seen one of the films nominated for any of the awards. And based on that, I would definitely say that Ironman has a pretty good chance at winning either the Sound Editing or Visual Effects category. Probably won’t be a sweep, but I’ll keep my fingers crossed. Come on, Robert Downey Jr, let’s take the under-categories that no one outside the industry cares about!
It’s not my fault that I have not seen these movies. When did I have time? The majority of nominees were released in 2009, or limited theatrical release in late December 2008. I do not live in a high-impact city and studios do not test much on us. Most of these flicks are finally coming to the local theater. But, even if I could still get to any of these movies, most of them look pretty stiff and uninteresting. Completely expected and custom-tailored to meet Academy “standards.” One exception would be Slumdog Millionaire. That movie rose out of relative obscurity during the summer months, and the acclaim it received stood the test of the Academy’s short attention span.
With that, I now give you an abbreviated list of the 2009 Oscar Nominations and my predicted winners. My predictions are completely informal and unreliable, and based solely on gossip, hearsay, or how much interest I have (or don’t have) from viewing the trailers.
Best Picture
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- The Reader
- Slumdog Millionaire *
Slumdog Millionaire will pick up Best Picture.
Directing
- David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
- Gus Van Sant, Milk
- Stephen Daldry, The Reader
- Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire *
Well this is tough. All directors are notable. Everyone loves Ron Howard and he always does great work. But something about Frost/Nixon seems so predictably good. Milk, another politically-themed film, merits a look and I think Gus Van Sant probably should take this award. However, I’ve always liked Danny Boyle’s style and think it is time he received some official praise. Danny Boyle wins Best Directing.
Best Actor
- Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
- Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
- Sean Penn, Milk
- Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler *
Mickey Rourke
Will this be yet another instance of pretty plays ugly and wins an Oscar? Good grief, I certainly hope not. Brad Pitt doesn’t win it for me. I think the real toss-up is between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. But let’s look at the facts. Sean Penn already has an Oscar. We know he’s good and he’s consistent. And was it really a stretch for him to play Harvey Milk? I suppose you could make the case that Mickey Rourke didn’t really have to stretch too far either, to play an aging entertainer trying to make a comeback or last stand. But Mickey Rourke certainly has the brooding and tortured soul thing going on, with just a hint at physical transformation. The Academy loves that stuff – tears, weight gain, hope for redemption. Mickey Rourke wins Best Actor.
Best Actress
- Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
- Angelina Jolie, Changeling
- Melissa Leo, Frozen River
- Meryl Streep, Doubt
- Kate Winslet, The Reader *
Kate Winslet wins Best Actress. She put out two worthy movies this year, but only received a nomination for one. The other actresses fall flat. I mean, Angelina tearing, shouting in her most melodramatic tone “I want MY son!” Give me a break. I’m on some serious Brangelina overload. I liked Angie better when her vocal tones leaned toward possible psycho killer.
For a complete list of nominees, check out www.oscar.com.
The 81st Annual Academy Awards will air February 22, 2009 on ABC, 8pm ET/5pm PT.