Matchup of the Year?: Duke vs. Syracuse in battle for ACC and national bragging rights in rematch at Cameron Indoor Stadium Saturday, Feb. 22, on ESPN.
#1 Syracuse @ #5 Duke
Saturday, Feb. 22, 7pm ET on ESPN
Originally I was going to focus on Syracuse’s 26-0 start to the season and how they keep finding ways to pull out close games with clutch performances like the Tyler Ennis 30 footer at Pittsburgh beating the buzzer or the late steal and score to edge out a victory over North Carolina State.
Then they lost at home to Boston College.
You know, a Boston College team that has only 3 wins in conference and 7 wins on the season. The same team that has the potential to fire their coach and an RPI of 173.
Sheesh!
The problem is that even though Syracuse is on a 6-1 stretch run, CJ Fair has struggled with his offensive efficiency. In his last 7 games, Fair is only shooting 39% on 16 shots a game with many of the shots being settled midrange shots. This is because he plays almost 38 minutes a game based on Syracuse’s injuries and overall small bench. However, despite the loss, Syracuse has still been a consistently good defense.
It’d be easy to think that with DaJuan Coleman going down with a season ending knee injury a few weeks ago and Baye Moussa Keita out since February 9th that teams would be able to score inside with ease. But surprisingly, since Rakeem Christmas took over the starting spot at center, he’s averaging over 3 ½ blocks a game including a 7 block performance his last time out against NC State. His ability to force shots outside of 3 feet and length to get a hand up has forced many teams to shoot jumpers and hope that Syracuse can shoot below 40% in order to sneak out victories.
On the other hand, Duke has played fairly well. At 10-4 in conference, they are well on their way to securing a high seed in the tournament with their 4 guard lineup. Future top draft pick Jabari Parker has played exceptional as of late, averaging 21 a game over his last 5 and attacking the hoop at will against any defender in the conference. His job is that much easier by having Rodney Hood still hitting shots from the outside and Quinn Cook stealing passes to create more opportunities on offense.
The key to the game will be if Duke can get Christmas in foul trouble early. With Jerami Grant having to fill the role of an undersized backup center, Duke can have the opportunity to play small with Parker or bigger with Amile Jefferson in the post. I also feel like Cook has an opportunity to create havoc within his speed and ability to get past defenders. Despite his 2-12 shooting last matchup, he was still able to get into the lane through the holes in the Syracuse zone and give himself quality scoring opportunities. If he can do that once again (and make a few more inside shots), he will be able to set up Parker and hot shooting Rasheed Sulaimon on the wing to beat the zone and pull off a high quality home win.
Implications for the game
As for potential effects on the rest of the conference, I think it’s important to see the current standings before I go on.
ACC Standings
| TEAM |
CONF |
OVERALL |
| Virginia |
13-1 |
22-5 |
| Syracuse |
12-1 |
25-1 |
| Duke |
10-4 |
21-6 |
| North Carolina |
9-4 |
19-7 |
| Pittsburgh |
8-5 |
20-6 |
| Clemson |
7-6 |
16-9 |
| Maryland |
7-7 |
15-12 |
| North Carolina State |
6-7 |
16-10 |
| Florida State |
6-8 |
15-11 |
| Notre Dame |
5-9 |
14-13 |
| Wake Forest |
4-9 |
14-12 |
| Georgia Tech |
4-9 |
13-13 |
| Miami (FL) |
4-9 |
13-13 |
| Boston College |
3-10 |
7-19 |
| Virginia Tech |
2-11 |
9-16 |
A win for Syracuse would secure a season sweep over the Blue Devils and give them a 26-1 start, along with basically locking up a 1 seed come tournament time. It also keeps Syracuse in the hunt for an ACC regular season title with the big matchup against second place Virginia March 1st looming. If they go the distance and win out the rest of its conference games in the regular season, it would be a big statement to the rest of the conference that they belong in the best conference in America, despite it being only their first season.
A loss for Syracuse could put themselves at risk of not winning the ACC. While Virginia has a fairly easy regular season schedule left (vs Notre Dame, vs Miami, vs Syracuse, @Maryland), a win for the Cavaliers over the Orange would give Dick Bennett and Virginia the title if they can win out, even though Syracuse has looked like the better team most of the year.
A win for Duke would give them an opportunity to finish second in the conference regular season for the fourth straight season. If Syracuse finds a way to win in Charlottesville coupled with another Virginia loss, Duke could finish the regular season undefeated and (because they beat Virginia in their only matchup January 13th).
A loss for Duke wouldn’t necessarily be the worst thing as they are probably still going to finish top 4 in the conference and receive a double bye come ACC Tournament time. With an 8-5 record against the RPI Top 100 teams and 3 of those losses to the top 3 RPI teams (Kansas and Arizona neutral sites, @ Syracuse), Duke is presumably still on pace for a 2 seed. However, it would keep them out of 1 seed discussion as none of those wins are against top 10 ranked teams. Unless they beat Syracuse or Virginia in the ACC Tournament, Duke will have to “settle” with a 2 seed.
What others are saying about each team
Stephen Bailey of “The Daily Orange” believes that despite Syracuse’s continued success, CJ Fai r is still the most important factor in an NCAA Tournament run.
Sean Keely of “SBNation” explains the ESPN College Gameday hype surrounding the game this weekend.
Karl Kingma of “The Chronicle” attempts to clear up the confusion around Duke’s starting point guard situation.